How Not to Be Wrong : The Power of Mathematical Thinking
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judging a decade’s worth of mutual funds by the ones that still exist at the end of the ten years is like judging our pilots’ evasive maneuvers by counting the bullet holes in the planes that come back. - skarlawnsciteerde uit2 jaar geledenthere’s no reason at all to expect the planes to have an equal likelihood of survival no matter where they get hit.
for example, in covid patients admitted to hospital with common shared symptoms, does it mean said symptoms were the most lethal?
- skarlawnsciteerde uit2 jaar geleden“What assumptions are you making? And are they justified?”
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